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| article author, Anthony Butler |
Too soon to pin Zuma
with label of
‘invincibility’
President Jacob Zuma must overcome a number of obstacles,
before he can settle in for a second term
PRESIDENT Jacob Zuma ’s supporters are trying to manufacture
a sense of inevitability around his campaign for re-election to the presidency
of the African National Congress (ANC). Zuma must overcome a number of
obstacles, however, before he can settle in for a second term.
Zuma’s critics continue to bemoan the fact that his core
support is regional or ethnic. The delegates of the ANC’s largest region,
KwaZulu-Natal, will probably back him as a bloc at the national conference in
December. His rise has carried members of KwaZulu-Natal’s political networks —
such as Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan — to dizzying heights.
New opportunities have arisen for businesspeople, public
servants, parastatal managers and politicians of Zulu descent. When South
African Communist Party and Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu)
leaders have criticised Zuma for his many mistakes, KwaZulu-Natal structures
have spoken loudly in his defence.
This iceberg is mostly submerged, visible to outside
observers only in peak political and official appointments. Like the alleged
Xhosa Nostra that preceded it, it is not marked by any central co-ordination.
ANC elder Zola Skweyiya observed of the Polokwane campaigns
of 2007 that "the demon of tribalism is rising … and we ignore it at our
peril. I was dreaming when I thought we had moved away from ethnicity. Many
issues still centre on it. We thought we would not go through what the rest of
Africa has gone through, but we are just another African country."
Skweyiya’s grief was partially assuaged only by Zuma’s
personal assurance to him that he would serve just one term as ANC president.
The ANC anachronistically discourages open discussion of
this politically sensitive challenge. Earlier this week, P olice M inister
Nathi Mthethwa condemned credible speculation that members of the ANC in
KwaZulu-Natal were lobbying for his election as ANC secretary-general. It is
those who raise the spectre of tribalism, he asserted illogically, who are the
real tribalists.
Now, as the ANC spreads its tentacles across the north of
KwaZulu-Natal, it is importing a more radical ethno-nationalism into the heart
of its largest province. This may yet generate an anti-Zuma counter-reaction.
Zuma’s opponents on the left have not been able to assemble
a credible Mangaung slate but the N ational T reasury’s determination to slow
the growth of public-sector wages has handed Cosatu leaders a political
opportunity they might exploit.
Once Zuma secures a second term, many union leaders may
calculate, he is likely to swing sharply right, further courting
traditionalists and social conservatives, winding up the Department of E
conomic D evelopment and handing control of public resources to the burgeoning
parastatal patronage machine. Although the "Mvela" project has
stalled, Tokyo Sexwale’s erstwhile partners — notably Arts Minister Paul
Mashatile and Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula — are pushing ahead with their own
Mangaung top-six ambitions.
One-time Polokwane allies may therefore anticipate a
decoupling of some top-six offices from the Zuma slate. It might be to Zuma’s
advantage to see Mantashe and treasurer-general Mathews Phosa picked off by
less experienced challengers.
Rumours that relative lightweights such as Mthethwa and
Public Enterprises Minister Malusi Gigaba are eyeing senior positions are
problematic for Zuma. One potential power broker, the South African Democratic
Teachers Union, this week reiterated its commitment only to the Zuma slate and
not, by implication, to Zuma himself.
Zuma’s position would be transformed if Mantashe and Phosa
felt obliged pre-emptively to remove themselves from his slate.
The refusal of Kgalema Motlanthe to run for a second
meaningless term as ANC deputy president might also call the credibility of
Zuma’s campaign into question.
Zuma is surprisingly well placed. But it is far too early to
yield to myths of Zuma’s invincibility.
• Butler teaches politics at the University of Cape Town.
______________________________
END OF ARTICLE AND NOTE BY GOODMAN MANYANYA PHIRI: Butler
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Author: Anthony Butler
anthony.butler@uct.ac.za
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